Ten things to know about North Carolina's hurricance season: NOAA's 2025 Atlantic Outlook (2025)

There are a number of factors that might make the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season an active one.

Michelle Kennedy

Meteorologist

Ten things to know about North Carolina's hurricane season: NOAA's 2025 Atlantic Outlook issued

There are a number of factors that might make the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season an active one.

IT’S SO NICE OUT THERE. FIRE UP THE GRILL, DAVE. JUST WATCH THOSE WINDS THAT ARE OUT THERE. TELL YOU THAT. BUT YEAH, IF YOU’RE THINKING ABOUT GRILLING OUT ON MONDAY, MEMORIAL DAY, WELL, WE’VE GOT YOUR GRILLING FORECAST HERE. THERE’S A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. NOT AN ALL DAY RAIN OUT. WE COULD SEE THAT THOUGH. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT ON MONDAY. AND IN THE MOUNTAINS TEMPERATURES GOING TO BE COOL MID 60S THERE. LOOKING OUT OVER NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RIGHT NOW. AND YOU CAN SEE THE TIDES ACTUALLY ARE RIGHT AT HIGH TIDE RIGHT NOW. AND LOW TIDE ABOUT TEN 1030 LATER ON TONIGHT, IF YOU’RE HEADED DOWN TO THE BEACHES THIS WEEKEND FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, LOOKING PRETTY GOOD TILL SUNDAY, THERE’S A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND DOWN TOWARDS WRIGHTSVILLE AND MYRTLE BEACH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER DOWN TO THE SOUTH, 70 OVER NORTHERN REACHES OF THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND THE OUTER BANKS AND UP AROUND ATLANTIC BEACH, WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE SURF ARE STARTING TO WARM UP INTO THE 70S, JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, SOME MID 70S DOWN AROUND THE GRAND STRAND AND DOWN TOWARDS AREAS OF THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES. ALSO, WE GOT THAT NOAA HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK UPDATE AVERAGE SEASON 14 FOR NAMED STORMS, AND THE FORECAST IS FOR 13 TO 19 FOR OUR 2025 SEASON. SEVEN HURRICANES IS OUR AVERAGE. NUMBER 6 TO 10 IS THE FORECAST FOR THIS SEASON. COMING UP, THREE IS THE AVERAGE MAJOR HURRICANES OF 111 MILE PER HOUR. WINDS ARE HIGHER AND WE COULD SEE 3 TO 5 OF THOSE. NOW, DO THOSE MAKE LANDFALL? NOT NECESSARILY. SOME STAY OUT TO SEA. IT’S SOMETHING WE’LL WATCH AND WE’LL START DOING THAT SOON. JUNE 1ST IS WHEN WE OFFICIALLY START HURRICANE SEASON. STORM NAMES THE FIRST THREE YOU’LL GET ON THE LIST TO START OUT. ANDREA, BARRY AND CHANTAL. THE FIRST THREE NAMES ON THE LIST. LOOKING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC, THINGS ARE PRETTY QUIET. OF COURSE, LATER IN THE SEASON, WE’LL LOOK OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FOR STORMS, AND THERE’S A FEW OUT THERE NOW, BUT THEY’RE PRETTY FAR SOUTH OF THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF. PRETTY QUIET AT THE MOMENT, SO WE DON’T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT ANY TROPICAL ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW. HAD SOME WINDS THAT WERE HIGH TODAY. THEY WEREN’T IN THE IN THE CATEGORY OF HURRICANE FORCE, BUT THEY’VE BEEN PRETTY GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE WEST, 1520 FIVE MILES PER HOUR AND GUSTING HIGHER THAN THAT. WE’VE SEEN A 38 MILE PER HOUR WIND GUST THIS AFTERNOON IN GREENSBORO. 30 MILE PER HOUR WIND GUSTS WINSTON-SALEM, AND WE’VE SEEN WINDS UPWARDS OF 35 TO 40 EVEN 50 MILE PER HOUR. WIND GUSTS UP IN ASHE COUNTY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. 60 AT BOONE RIGHT NOW, AND ALL THE WAY AT THE OTHER END OF THE COAST OR THE OTHER END OF THE STATE, 86 ALONG THE COAST. 79 HERE IN THE TRIAD AT THIS HOUR, IF YOU’RE GOING TO THE GAME TONIGHT, VERY NICE. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO START. THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN A LITTLE BIT LATER ON, BUT DRY CONDITIONS OUT THERE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S EARLY ON FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE RAINS ARE UP TO THE NORTH OF US OVER AREAS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST. RIGHT NOW WE’LL GET SOME OF THIS DRY AIR IN HERE, AND WE’LL STAY DRY AS WE GET INTO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE WE START TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT AND THE FOOTHILLS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN HERE UNTIL THEN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKING GOOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY INTO THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW IN THE 60S ALL THE WAY THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY FOR HIGHS AND MORNING TEMPERATURES MAY START OFF IN THE 40S IN SOME OF THOSE SPOTS. WE’VE GOT THE BOWMAN GRAY RACE COMING UP ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE NICE AND DRY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO START LOW 60S BY THE END. SO GOOD RACING THERE. AND THEN THE COCA-COLA 600 CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY ON SUNDAY. YOU MIGHT HAVE TO DODGE AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER HERE OR THERE AND TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE INTO THE 70S. SUMMER SOLSTICE. COUNTDOWN TO SUMMER, 29 DAYS AWAY ON FRIDAY, JUNE 20TH, WE OFFICIALLY START SUMMER. OUR SEVEN DAY FORECAST SHOWS YOU HERE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKING GOOD. CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES REALLY MONDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON TUESDAY. WE’LL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN HERE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE UPPER 70S THEN REALLY 70 ALL THE WAY THROU

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Ten things to know about North Carolina's hurricane season: NOAA's 2025 Atlantic Outlook issued

There are a number of factors that might make the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season an active one.

Michelle Kennedy

Meteorologist

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season NamesNorth Carolina State University Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. —

Hurricane meteorologists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are giving the 2025 season a 60 percent chance of being above normal. A typical season has about 14 named storms, but NOAA forecasters think the position of the West African Monsoon migrating farther north this year, a neutral climate pattern, lower wind shear, and warmer ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean basin may lead to an active season.

The 2024 season was the most active outlook issued by NOAA in the month of May. In 2024, forecasters expected 18-25 storms might be named; the forecast verified for 2024 as we had 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes — 2024 also brought the most devastating tropical system North Carolina has ever seen as Helene rolled north from Florida as a tropical storm. According to the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services, Helene was responsible for 107 people losing their lives in September 2024. For more information on historical hurricane landfalls and tropical impacts for North Carolina, visit our special project: WXII 12 Disaster Unhinged..

Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30, and the peak of named systems is typically the second week of September. Please take a look at the graphics below for more links and details about what to expect this year! The typical hurricane season peaks on Sept. 10.

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Ten things to know about North Carolina's hurricance season: NOAA's 2025 Atlantic Outlook (1)

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NOAA 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

NOAA hurricane meteorologists report a 60% likelihood of an above normal hurricane season with only a 10% chance it could be below normal.

Ten things to know about North Carolina's hurricance season: NOAA's 2025 Atlantic Outlook (2)

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NOAA Atlantic hurricane season outlook for 2025

NOAA hurricane meteorologists have issued their May 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook.

Ten things to know about North Carolina's hurricance season: NOAA's 2025 Atlantic Outlook (3)

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Comparison of an average season to the NOAA 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

This bar graph depicts an average Atlantic hurricane season on the left versus the NOAA 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on the right. Bars shaded in blue represent the total number of named storms, bars shaded in yellow represent the total number of hurricanes and bars shaded in orange represent the total number of major hurricanes. The highest forecast numbers for each storm type are listed.

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Ten things to know about North Carolina's hurricance season: NOAA's 2025 Atlantic Outlook (4)

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NOAA Forecasters' Reasoning Behind the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

There are several reasons meteorologists believe the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season may be above normal despite El Nino and La Nina going into a neutral phase.

Ten things to know about North Carolina's hurricance season: NOAA's 2025 Atlantic Outlook (5)

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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: NOAA Meteorologists' First Forecast for the Season

There were 18 named storms last year and verified the early May NOAA Outlook of 18-25 storms. This year, 13-19 storms are forecast to develop.

Ten things to know about North Carolina's hurricance season: NOAA's 2025 Atlantic Outlook (6)

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NCSU 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

Professors and researchers at North Carolina State University issued their Atlantic hurricane season outlook on April 2.

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Ten things to know about North Carolina's hurricance season: NOAA's 2025 Atlantic Outlook (7)

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NOAA's forecast includes 3-5 Major hurricanes: 111 MPH or higher

NOAA's first forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season shows 3-5 major hurricanes, Category 3 or higher storms could form.

Ten things to know about North Carolina's hurricance season: NOAA's 2025 Atlantic Outlook (8)

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Deaths in North Carolina related to tropical systems

Helene is North Carolina's worst tropical system to impact the state to date for the highest total of storm-related deaths of 107 and damage costs. In August of 2024, Tropical Storm Debby's inland wind gusts during severe storms brought a tree down on a mobile home, killing a Brown Summit resident.

Ten things to know about North Carolina's hurricance season: NOAA's 2025 Atlantic Outlook (9)

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2025 Atlantic hurricane season storm names

2025 Atlantic hurricane season storm names are chosen by the World Meteorological Organization.

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Ten things to know about North Carolina's hurricance season: NOAA's 2025 Atlantic Outlook (10)

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Tropical system frequency based on storms per day per 100 years

Ten things to know about North Carolina's hurricance season: NOAA's 2025 Atlantic Outlook (2025)
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